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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.