Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”